Impact of COVID-19 and Comparison
Impact of COVID-19 and Comparison to Previous Crises Pandemics of varying severity have plagued humanity ever since the prehistoric period, prior to the industrial revolution. Additionally, it can be argued that the majority of ancient epidemics prior to the twentieth century would not be classified as a pandemic in a contemporary global context due to their geospecificity. Concerning this, Dr. In 2009, Fukuda K., an assistant director general for health security and the environment (WHO), stated that the severity of a disease is a significant factor in determining whether it is a global pandemic or epidemic. He claims that earlier versions of the “Pandemic Planning Guidance” focused on a variety of concepts, such as virus evolution, contagion, severity, and so forth. He adds that these models are too complicated, and the phases in their classifications are too complicated. This makes it difficult for many countries to apply and interpret the models correctly. Patterns in Past and Current Pandemics According to Carrie et al. (2013), the majority of scholarships have supported the claim that an epidemic’s fatality rates heavily influence its classification as a pandemic. According to Potter (2001), an epidemic is considered to be a pandemic if it is severe enough to result in a high number of deaths. Epidemics that spread widely and globally prior to the industrial age may or may not have been classified as pandemics in our current era. Three major global pandemics occurred from the beginning of the 20th century to the end of it: the “Spanish Flu” of 1918 (Barro et al. 2020), the “Asian Flu” (H2N2) of 1957 (Jackson, 2009), and the “Hong Kong Flu” (H3N2) of 1968 (Starling 2006). One startling conclusion can be reached by examining the patterns of epidemics throughout modern history. That is, the means by which these pandemics propagate, mutate, and spread become more favorable as civilizations become more advanced as a result of industrialization and globalization. Consequently, during a pandemic, the ever-increasing ease of transportation, globalization, and industrialization may favor the virus’s rapid spread. This is evident in the twenty-first century, which has witnessed more than three global pandemics and counting in less than a quarter of a century; the 2009 Bird Flu (N1H1) (Moghadas et al., 2019), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2002 (Smith, 2006), and the brand-new coronavirus (COVID-19) in 2019. 2020). Social and Economic Effects of Pandemics Even though the Spanish Flu reached its peak near the end of the First World War, the economic and social effects on established activities were the most important (Barro and Ursa, 2008; some authors suggest that the impact may have been greater than reported). Barro et al. (2020) focused on the macroeconomic effects of pandemics, particularly the Spanish Flu and COVID-19. They defined these effects as a collective decline of approximately 10% in real GDP per capita over a clearly defined period. As a result, the Spanish Flu, the first world war, and the second world war had the greatest effects on the macroeconomic system in recent history. The authors claim that the 1918 Spanish Flu was the next major global negative macroeconomic impact, but the current pandemic is edging closer.